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Blake Hurst says that declining values for farmland will only affect his family farm if they decide to sell at some point in the future.

The value of farmland in five Northwest Missouri counties is stable, despite an overall nationwide decrease in price, a university survey says.

The measurement — which depicts the first drop in farm real estate value since 1987 — serves as a mirror on the credit market during the recession and also can give insight into the state of rural prosperity.

A report recently released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows that the nation’s farm real estate averaged $2,100 per acre at the start of the year — down 3.2 percent from 2008.

In Missouri, the average value in the same category stood at $2,200 an acre — or a decline of 4.3 percent from last year.

The price of cropland in Buchanan, Andrew, Holt, Nodaway and Atchison counties remained essentially unchanged, based on preliminary findings of a University of Missouri survey.

An Atchison County farmer said farm commodity prices are being reflected by land values, which have retreated in his area.

“They’ve been very strong as the result of very good prices,” said Blake Hurst, who farms outside Westboro, Mo. “The fact that land prices are weakening is a good thing, if you’re a buyer.”

Yet, land purchases at the moment aren’t very active, he added.

“Credit is a little tighter,” Mr. Hurst said. “It’s a little harder to secure financing.”

Mound City, Mo., area farmer Mitchell Corbin said local farm ground prices have essentially flatlined.

“I would call them (values) stable right now,” he said. “I think a lot of it is going to depend on the crops we grow.”

Mr. Corbin speculates that rural land prices will have risen slightly a year from now.

“There just hasn’t been a lot of land for sale. It’s a seller’s market in Holt County,” he said. “It hasn’t softened any.”

It will take more confidence in the economy to influence an increase in agricultural real estate values, said Hopkins, Mo., area farmer Steve Alexander.

“I don’t see a lot of change,” he said. “I think people are apprehensive on committing to long term,” he mused. “Nobody’s willing to cut loose.”

Young farmers could try their hand at expanding operations in the present climate, Mr. Alexander said, but only if financing is within reach.

“I think the land’s in good, solid hands,” he concluded.

The survey conducted in July by the University of Missouri’s College of Agriculture shows the differences from part of Northwest Missouri versus the rest of the state. A final version of the annual report is yet to be released, said university economist Dr. Ronald L. Plain.

“Those values have basically held steady,” Dr. Plain said of the five counties. Farmland prices in north-central Missouri and Kansas City area counties mimic the downward state trend, he added.

The Northwest Missouri anomaly shouldn’t be taken as an indicator of what will transpire in the rest of the state, Dr. Plain said. “It’s a very uncertain time to expand,” he said. “It’s very costly to expand right now.”

Several factors surround the decreased land values, the national report said.

“The contraction in the overall economy has caused less commercial and residential development in many regions,” the report said. “Livestock and crop commodity prices have declined from a year earlier, thus producers and investors are less optimistic than a year ago. A decrease in the demand for recreational land has also contributed to the overall decrease in land values.”

Dr. Plain said the pace at which the recession ends will determine whether farmers choose to add property to their farmsteads.

Roger Allison of the Missouri Rural Crisis Center recalled a recent decade reminiscent of the current circumstances. The center is a nonprofit organization that works to preserve family farms.

“We lived through the ’80s. That was probably one of the worst periods of time for farmers and their assets since the Great Depression,” he said. “We don’t see a lot of land being put on the market.”

Mr. Allison also said there are fewer requests by retirees and sports enthusiasts for hunting and recreational property. He expects farm property values that have fallen will gradually stabilize.

Ray Scherer can be reached at rscherer@npgco.com.